The Indian Rupee has recently
appreciated, significantly against all
major currencies of the world.
The fluctuation in Indian Rupee – US
Dollar Exchange Rate has been a
matter of great concern for the exporter
community as Dollar has appreciated
from its peak of Rs. 46.89 on 24th July,
2006 to a level of Rs. 40.71 on 9th May,
2007 (a fall of 13.18%).
Currencies Current Exchange Rate Change (Percentage)
3 Months 1 Year
British Pound 81.14 (-) 6.21 (-) 2.87
Chinese RMB 5.29 (-) 7 .12 (-) 5.86
Euro 55.13 (-) 3.76 (-) 3.50
Japanese Yen 0.34 (-) 6.70 (-)17.09
Singapore Dollar 26.85 (-) 6.69 (-) 6.37
Swiss Franc 33.45 (-) 5.32 (-) 9.10
US Dollar 40.71 (-) 7.79 (-) 9.77
The exporter community led by Commerce Minister Mr. Kamal
Nath has been pressurizing the Government and Reserve Bank
of India (RBI) to intervene and buy Dollar from the market to
curb the appreciation of the rupee vis a vis other major currency,
specially US Dollar. How far pressure of exporting community
is justified is to be examined in the backdrop of the following :-
- In 1991, Dr. Man Mohan Singh as Finance Minister intervened
in the Forex Market in 2 trenches and US Dollar appreciated
from Rs. 16 to Rs. 32, just in a matter of 3 months
- India had a fully controlled exchange control regime before
this and India had a very tough time in 1990,as due to lack of
foreign exchange ,India had to mortgage its Gold Reserve.
- A price parity research between India and US indicate that
most of the products in the US market are about 5 times
costlier (on an average) as compared to the Indian market, on the basis of current exchange rate.
- As per price parity US $ - Indian Rupee Exchange Rate
should be in between Rs. 10 to Rs. 15.
- The foreign exchange reserves of India are more than US $
200 billion, whereas the official reserve are in excess of US
$ 120 billion. This amount represent, in majority, the Dollar
purchased by RBI from the open market.
- There has been a continuous debate between Finance Ministry
and RBI about utilization of Foreign Exchange Reserve for
lending to the corporates. RBI has all along opposed this
move of the Gov in view of inherent risk. The congress had included in its manifesto that
it will use Forex reserves for
on lending.
- In case rupee appreciates
further the landed price of
the imported commodities
and other goods would
reduce further, which will
put necessary pressure
on the Indian inflationary
condition.
- The exports from India
will become less attractive
and exporter will have to
focus on cost reduction and
innovation significantly.
- In case RBI does not
intervene by fresh acquisition
of Dollar in the market,
rupee may significantly
appreciate further and may
reach Rs.35-Rs.30 in 6-12
months.
- The rupee appreciation may
result into–
- Pressure on inflation
- Reduction in money
supply (M-3)
- The RBI activity of
market stabilization, by
sucking rupee supply
from the Market against
issuance of government
securities will go down,
thereby reducing the
burden of interest on the
government.
- The Indian interest rates are currently
3 to 4% higher, as compared to
international benchmark. The
appreciate rupee will put further
pressure on the interest rate to
more reasonable and realistic
level comparable to international
benchmark.
Now the crucial question is, as to whether
RBI and the Government should allow
the rupee to fluctuate as per the market
condition or RBI should intervene to take
care of the interest of the exporters and
then also address, resultant money supply
by utilizing additional market stabilization
fund of 30 000 crores, allocated to Reserve
Bank recently.
It is a hard fact that due to pressure
of the exporting community as well as
due to lobbying of Indian industry, RBI
has been taming the rupee for last 2-3
years. The Indian domestic industry has
long standing apprehension that in view of
significant reduction of custom duty rates
(fiscal barrier) and withdrawal of almost
all physical control on imports by the
government, the Indian domestic industry
is being subjected to tough competition
from international markets.
A sharp reduction fluctuation in forex rates
as noticed in last 3 months is more killing
for the Indian economy, as there is no
effective hedging mechanism is available
with the Indian market. However, an
artificial rupee-dollar rate is only helping
the international customer at the cost of
the Indian domestic customer. Our goods
are being exported at an artificially low
price, whereas the imports are artificially
priced high, thereby impacting the Indian
consumer and benefiting the foreign
consumer. Ultimately, the exchange rate
has to be determined on price parity
determined by inflation in the domestic
economy Vis a Vis the international
markets.
We are of the considered view that the
Government of India and RBI need to
have a serious debate on the exchange
rate management strategy and they should
consider the following in the interest of the
long term Indian economy as a whole:
- RBI intervention in the foreign
exchange market should be primarily
aimed at addressing wide and swift
fluctuation, thereby allowing the Indian
rupee to appreciate or depreciate, in
terms of market dynamism, without
wild fluctuation.
- The current Foreign Exchange Reserve
of more than US dollar 200 billion
are reasonably adequate to support a
market correction and even if rupee
appreciates, the impact of short term
trade deficit can be absorbed by the
Forex Reserve.
- RBI and the government need to
keep a close vigil on the other major
economies and their strategy regarding
exchange fluctuation;
- In the WTO Forum, the Indian
Government should take up that
international economies should shift to
market driven exchange rate parity. In
case certain major economy like China
continues to control their exchange rate,
a free international competitive market
cannot be contemplated. The reduction
in fiscal barrier and withdrawal of
physical barrier are not enough to
achieve free international trade. It is
necessary that the foreign exchange
market be also left to the market forces,
without any major intervention by
the respective government, including
the Government of US and European
countries.
We, as India are poised for a significant
growth and sudden fluctuation in the
exchange rate, similar to what has happened
in last one month or in last 3 months is not
healthy for a sound Indian economy.
The Government needs to strategize clearly
and also ensure that Forex Market in India
including derivative market, forward
market and other hedging mechanism
are made available in a free, fair and
transparent manner through computerised
exchange trading similar to equity trading
in the Stock Exchanges. The foreign
exchange is an important necessity for the
Indian Market and it cannot be left to the
OTC Market.