The recent fall of world largest
investment bankers including
Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sach,
Morgan Stanley and Merryil Lynch
followed by failure of a number of
largest American and European
Banks have brought the
international financial market to a
halt. American Insurance Group
(AIG), one of the largest insurance
company of United States of America had to be nationalized by
US Government. This is followed by insolvency of a Japan’s largest insurance company. The G-
7, Group of 7 largest economies of the world, at the highest
level have decided to nationalize a larger number of Banks in
American and European countries to arrest the loss of complete
confidence and also to address liquidity crises. The U.S.
President had to approach the senate and U.S. Congress to
grant relief of about 700 billion US$(Bailout Package) to the
ailing financial system.
The Indian financial market and capital
market is witnessing worst period of
negative sentiments. The stock
markets are on a falling spree with
sensex nearing 4 figures (a fall of
about 50% since January 2008,
whereas some of the blue chip shares
loosing 70% to 90% in their market
capitalization.
The truth of financial debacle started
unfolding about a year ago when sub
prime crises hit the U.S. market. The
source of problem was indiscriminate
lending by US Banks and financial
services companies to Real Estate
acquisitions and other sub-prime
lending, with larger risk and of
course decent returns
The credit risk of these high risk - high
yield loans were hived off into “credit
link notes” derivative instruments.
The high risk derivatives were
bundled with low risk derivatives and
marketed and the credit risk were
insured by companies like AIG to
further improve the credit rating. The
top notch credit rating companies
provided investment grade credit
rating to these derivative instruments.
The top notch investment bankers,
largest hedge funds and top bankers
in the world invested in these credit
risk linked derivatives to substantially
improve their earning levels and
increased bonus to operating top
executives. The investment bankers
and international banks were highly
leveraged financially with lower
capital adequacy than was needed.
The sub prime borrowers started
defaulting towards end of 2006 and
beginning of 2007 resulting into sale
of real estate by mortgage financiers.
This fueled a substantial fall in real
estate prices, the most common
underlying security for these loans.
The default in sub-prime loans rose
aggressively towards the beginning
of 2008, in spite of substantial
reduction in US federal interest rates
by more than 60% to about 2% per annum.
The problem got aggravated when the
financial system stopped lending
against mortgage-backed securities
and banks were unwilling to sell them at a loss. The market price reduction
of mortgage backed securities and
credit linked derivatives is so
substantial that not only liquidity but
also solvency of all banks, hedge
funds and investment bankers
became a matter of serious concern.
It is apprehended that this crises will
take a further toll much deeper and
harder and International Monetary
Fund has predicted a world wide
recession comparable to 1929 worlds
worst recession. The banks are not
willing to lend other banks and
inter bank financial lending system
has came to a halt with LIBOR and
EURIBOR ruling at about 200 to 300
basis points over Federal Rates as
compared to usual margin of 25 bps
to 30 bps. The money is not even
available at these rates.
Impact on India?
The Indian Stock Market is already
witnessing a selling spree not only
by FIIs but also by mutual funds and
other domestic institutions and
investors. The capital market may see
another 20%- 30% fall from current
levels.
The mutual funds are witnessing
indiscriminate withdrawal
(redemptions) and Indian Mutual
Funds are facing liquidity crisis
besides a substantial fall in Net Asset
Value (NAV) across the board.
There is apprehension of failure of
some of Indian private sector banks.
RBI and Govt. Of India has
announced that there is no such risk.
The Indian banking system is also
facing severe liquidity crunch with
call rates and MIBORC (Mumbai
Inter-bank offering rate) touching a
high of about 18% to 20%. RBI has
recently (during 6th – 11th October
week) reduced cash reserve ratio by
1.5 per cent injecting Rs. 60,000 crores
in the banking system to address
liquidity crisis.
In view of a very small exposure
(about 450 million $) of Indian banking
system to credit link notes and credit
derivatives, the Indian banking
system appears to be safe. The
information technology companies,
BPOs, KPOs and other IT enabled
services companies are highly
dependent on U.S. market and more
particularly U.S. financial services corporates, banks and funds. The
order book of these IT and IT enabled
companies has already taken a
substantial hit and top I.T. companies
have not only retrenched software
engineers on the bench but have also
initiated cost reduction exercise
including substantial cut in salaries
and bonuses. The textile sector and
other export dependent industries
may also take a hit. However India’s
dependence on U.S. and European
markets is limited and may at best hit
India’s GDP growth rate adversely.
The Real Estate market may also
witness a severe cut in market price.
Indian economy is robust. It may
however be very important for Indian
Government, Reserve Bank of India,
SEBI and other Indian Regulators to
strategically move firmly and fast and
take necessary corrective actions and
regulatory measures.